Fort Worth, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

250
FXUS64 KFWD 220605
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1205 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance (20 percent) for patchy freezing drizzle
  south of U.S. 84 between midnight and 6 A.M. tonight into
  Saturday morning. Minimal, if any, travel impacts are expected.

- Scattered rain showers (30 to 50 percent chance) will develop
  south of Interstate 20 Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Night through Sunday/

Upper-level water vapor imagery continues to show troughing over
the western CONUS, with embedded shortwave disturbances stretching
from the central Great Plains into the desert southwest. The
latter of these disturbances is expected to slowly traverse the
southern Rockies and move out into the southern Great Plains over
the course of this weekend. In advance of this disturbance, strong
mid-level flow will continue to bring elevated moisture over the
region from the south. As such, cloud cover will persist across
the area, particularly south of Interstate 20. This will help keep
temperatures fairly steady tonight, right around the freezing
mark. North of Interstate 20, cloud cover will slowly clear from
west to east. Skies from Young to Grayson County have already
cleared, with observed temperatures already in the low and
mid-20s.

South of Highway 84, there will be just enough moisture for patchy
drizzle (20 percent chance of precip) from midnight through 6 AM.
With temperatures right around freezing, elevated surfaces may
accrete a glaze of ice. However, any ice accumulations will be
very patchy and short lived in nature, as temperatures will warm
into the upper 30s and low 40s by this afternoon. Minimal, if any,
travel impacts are expected.

The primary disturbance out west is expected to eject into the
southern High Plains Saturday evening. Strong forcing for ascent
downstream of this system and continued advection of moisture from
the south will result in scattered rain showers developing across
much of central and eastern Texas Saturday night into Sunday
morning. The greatest rain chances, 30 to 50 percent, look to
remain along and south of the U.S. 84 corridor where more ample
moisture will reside. However, lower rain chances (15 to 25
percent) extend much further north into the Interstate 20
corridor. Even though low-level moisture will be much lower in
this area, stronger forcing for ascent may be enough to overcome
the dry air, allowing isolated rain showers to develop overnight
Saturday night. North of Interstate 20, temperatures look to drop
into the low and mid-30s heading into Sunday morning. As such,
there will be the potential for occasional flurries during this
time frame, primarily between Interstate 20 and U.S. 380.

By Sunday, the weekend shortwave disturbance should be making its
way into the southern Mississippi River Valley. With NVA and
higher heights advecting into the region from upstream behind this
system, cloud cover should clear by the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the 50s east of I-35, and lower 60s west
of I-35.

Darrah

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 141 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025/
/Saturday Night Through Next Week/

No major changes have been made to the long term portion of our
forecast. An approaching shortwave will move overhead through
early Sunday morning, increasing the potential for showers across
portions of Central Texas. Guidance continues to come in with the
greatest lift associated with this shortwave remaining further
south. This will keep the best rain chances across Central Texas
and even further south toward the Texas coast. We did decide to
keep low PoPs (10% chance) for an isolated shower or perhaps some
drizzle across portions of North and East Texas. With surface
temperatures hovering just around freezing, there is a very low
chance (<10%) for freezing drizzle across our northeastern
counties. Given this brief window of potential and the continued
trend for rain chances moving further south, we decided to keep
any mention of freezing rain/drizzle out of the forecast. Even if
any freezing rain/drizzle occurs across this area, impacts will
remain few and far between. Absolute worst case scenario would
involve a slick spot or two on bridges and overpasses, but the
chance of this happening is quite low. Temperatures will also
climb well above freezing through Sunday morning, adding to our
confidence in little to no impacts should the worst case occur.

Conditions will rapidly improve through late Sunday morning and
into the afternoon hours, with temperatures warming into the 50s
and 60s for much of the area. Clearing skies will bring us into
Sunday night, setting the stage for pleasant weather conditions
that will bring us through the entirety of next week. Temperatures
will gradually warm into the 60s and 70s across all of North and
Central Texas, with a few locations potentially warming up into
the low 80s across our western counties on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Another cold front will attempt to push through the region toward
the end of the week, with guidance keeping the passage of this
front dry. Enjoy the warmer weather!

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday/

A VFR deck of stratus with ceilings 4 to 5 kft will persist across
TAF sites for the duration of this forecast period. MVFR ceilings
will be possible after 00Z Sunday at KACT, but confidence is not
high enough to include in TAFs at this point. A high pressure
center will also be positioned over the DFW metro through 00Z
Sunday. This will keep wind directions highly variable and very
weak (under 5 knots). When the high pressure center finally moves
east after 00Z, winds will generally be out of the south at 5 to
10 knots.

Darrah

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    27  50  39  59  43 /   0   0  20  10   0
Waco                29  47  36  58  41 /   5  20  20  10   0
Paris               24  47  33  55  39 /   0   0  10  10   0
Denton              24  51  34  59  40 /   0   0  10  10   0
McKinney            24  49  34  57  40 /   0   0  20  10   0
Dallas              27  51  40  59  43 /   0   5  20  10   0
Terrell             26  49  37  56  40 /   0  10  20  20   0
Corsicana           27  48  38  56  43 /  10  10  20  20   0
Temple              31  44  36  59  40 /  10  20  30  10   0
Mineral Wells       23  53  34  63  39 /   0   0  20  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$